German builder trumpets ‘Arctic-proven’ subs, but questions loom about ‘under-ice’ ability 

The maker of Canada’s next underwater fleet says the selected submarines are “Arctic proven,” but experts say they don’t expect the types of operations in the North to change with the new vessels. 

When announcing that Canada was seeking a new submarine fleet in the 2024 Defence Policy Update, the federal government noted that it would be “under-ice capable.” 

On July 6, Canada selected Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) to build Canada’s next submarine fleet—a bid Berlin pushed forward with Oslo.

“Our submarines are Arctic proven because during the design phase we made it together with Norway,” said TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard. 

“Norway [has] the same challenges that you [Canada] have,” he said last month in an interview with The Hill Times. “Arctic proven doesn’t mean you can go [through] any ice thickness.” 

At the onset of the procurement for a new submarine fleet, Canada set out to buy a conventionally powered submarine instead of a more expensive nuclear-powered option. The new submarine fleet is expected to cost a minimum of around $24-billion based on procuring a dozen vessels.  

Conventionally powered vessels have limited ability to break through ice unlike nuclear-powered submarines. Without that capacity, it reduces the ability to operate under ice as a submarine has to surface in the event of an emergency, such as a fire. 

Burkhard didn’t directly answer a question regarding the thickness of ice that the TKMS’s 212CD can break through. 

“The more important thing is not to break through the ice because a submarine doesn’t want to appear very often on the surface—they want it to be under the water level—it has a great capability to stay very long under the water,” he said. “That was the reason it was named the submarine patrol program. The reason is to get a better understanding in the North of what’s going on, and show a kind of deterrence, which is not given today.”

He said that the submarine has “lots of systems in place” to suppress a fire “very quickly.”

Burkhard said the Arctic capabilities that are needed in Canada’s North are similar to that of Norway, noting they are at similar latitudes. 

“The Norwegians asked us to design a boat which is capable of running through that area they want to go in, which is the North Pole and all that stuff around Northern Europe, which is quite similar to what you have North of your last land line,” he said. 

Ice-edge versus under-ice operations 

St. Francis Xavier University professor Adam Lajeunesse, an expert in Arctic and marine security, said that Canada’s operations in the Arctic likely won’t involve going under the ice. 

He noted that Arctic capabilities both require the capacity to be able to operate under ice for extended periods of times, but also to break through the ice. 

“It’s not clear at all that the TKMS submarine or any diesel-electric can actually surface through the ice,” he said. “The surfacing is important because if you are under ice and you get into trouble, you need to surface. That’s a big question mark.”

He said that Canada’s Arctic requirements for submarines have been “overstated.” 

“Whenever our Navy talks about Arctic capability, it is talking about ice-edge capability,” Lajeunesse said. “The Navy has never envisioned extended under-ice patrols. It’s dangerous; no diesel-electric submarine is built for this, and they’re probably not strategically necessary.”

He said the Norwegian Arctic is “very different” from Canada’s North.

“The Norwegian Arctic is largely ice free. It is very short-range operations,” Lajeunesse said, remarking that Norway operates close to port opposed to Canada’s Arctic operations, which are expeditionary and take weeks to transit. 

Lajeunesse said that Arctic operations for the Canadian Navy will likely involve patrolling the ice edge in the Baffin Bay and Bering Strait regions to serve as a surveillance vessel in the critical chokepoints of the North waterways. 

“You can imagine [the Arctic] as a house and it's only got a couple of entrances,” he said. “We don’t need to patrol the house, we just need to sit at the door. And that’s what the navy is planning to do.”

University of Calgary professor Rob Huebert, an expert on Arctic security, said the longer the submarine can stay submerged, the longer it can go to the edge of the ice. 

“That will give you—in the Canadian context—an ability to shut off the entry of any Russian submarine trying to come into those waters, or a Chinese submarine,” he said.

But he said that it is questionable whether Canada would have the capacity to follow an adversary if it goes under ice in the Arctic unlike what can be done by American nuclear-powered submarines. 

Huebert said that the biggest concern is that the approaches to North America are being defended.

“And those will be relatively ice free,” he said, adding that, given the decades-long window in which the submarine will be operating, there is also a question of ice loss during that period, which could change its operating environment. 

A question of numbers 

Former submarine captain Norman Jolin, now with CFN Consultants, said the preferred TKMS submarine can’t be considered “Arctic proven” because it is an untested design. 

“It can’t be a proven submarine if it doesn’t exist,” said Jolin, who worked with South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, which lost out as the preferred bidder to TKMS. 

TKMS’s 212CD is based on the 212A that is in operations in the navies of Germany and Italy.

Jolin said that the Canadian Navy made it “very clear” during the bidding process that the submarine would be for ice-edge operations. 

“It’s got an under-ice capability—a limited one—which will make all the politicians very happy. Yes, it can go under ice, but not very far and for very long,” he said. “I’ve got to know where clear water is so I can get away if I have an emergency.” 

He added that in addition to the capability of the submarines, Canada hasn’t mapped what's under the ice, remarking that there are areas of the Northwest Passage that are 10 metres deep, which would mean too shallow to navigate in a submarine. 

Jolin said that it has never been explained to Canadians why 12 submarines was the needed number. He said that if Canada wants a persistent presence, then “numbers matter.” 

He said he is concerned that 12 vessels ultimately won’t be purchased, noting that, historically, when Canada has run into fiscal constraints, it has slashed funding for the military. He said that if cuts are being considered, an offshore procurement that won’t directly affect Canadian jobs would likely be targeted.

“I’ve heard this movie before, I’ve watched it happen,” he said of submarines being promised and then cut. 

At the announcement about selecting the TKMS bid, a reporter referenced Canada’s procurement of 12 submarines to which Prime Minister Mark Carney (Nepean, Ont.) referenced that it is "up to" a dozen.

“Just for clarity, we will enter into negotiations—the Defence Investment Agency will enter into negotiations for up to 12 submarines,” Carney said on July 6 in Halifax, N.S.

Since coming to power, Carney has trumpeted a generational investment in the Canadian Forces and defence procurement, but funding increases haven’t been forecast as to how Ottawa will meet its NATO commitment of spending five per cent of its GDP on defence by 2035. 

More subs could deepen footprint in Arctic: experts 

Canadian Forces College professor Paul Mitchell, an expert on Canadian submarines, said that the number of boats being bought will matter more than any added capability that a new sub has compared to the aging fleet of four Victoria-class vessels. 

“Having those extra boats means that you could potentially cycle boats on patrol,” he said.

The accepted ratio is that for every three or four submarines a country has, only one is in active operations as the others will be in some state of refit.  

“Having more submarines means you can begin to consider cycles,” Mitchell said, remarking that it takes a significant time to transit to Arctic theatres before it can begin patrolling. Canada’s submarine bases are in Esquimalt, B.C., and Halifax, N.S.

—with files from Irem Koca

nmoss@hilltimes.com

The Hill Times