After the failure of trade talks, Canada has to push forward and build
The collapse of Canada-United States trade negotiations on Aug. 21 shattered any Canadian illusion that the relationship with our closest ally and largest trading partner can be rebuilt anytime soon.
The response has been emotional and clear. Social media is full again with Canadian pride, and calls to stand up for our country. Shoppers are redoubling their efforts to check labels and buy Canadian (or anything BUT American). Travelers are cancelling their U.S. trips, and determined to take their money elsewhere
The federal government must now match this moment with a plan. The upcoming Canada Investment Summit on Sept. 14 and 15 in Toronto is an opportunity to show Canadians—and the world—that trade diversification is more than just a promise.
As former chief trade negotiator and Public Policy Forum (PPF) fellow Steve Verheul will argue in his upcoming PPF policy paper, Canada's long-term economic growth and ability to attract investment depend on the choices it makes today. Central to that is proving that Canada can move major projects beyond big announcements and get shovels in the ground.
The federal government wants to unlock $1-trillion in investment over five years, including $500-billion from the private sector. Canada has the resources, workforce, institutions, regulatory environment, and preferential market access to attract that capital. The harder question is whether it has enough investable projects ready to finance, approve, and build.
Recent history offers a warning. When Germany went looking for reliable new sources of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022, Ottawa questioned the business case for East Coast exports. This year, Germany’s Uniper signed a 20-year agreement to purchase LNG from the proposed Ksi Lisims project in British Columbia.
Canada also reportedly lacked enough investment-ready projects to put forward after the United Arab Emirates committed to investing up to $70-billion here.
Investor interest is not the problem. Canada needs a deeper pipeline of projects that investors can actually back.
Ottawa has started to respond. It has created the Major Projects Office, set a two-year target for reviews, and reached one-project-one-review agreements with seven provinces, while two—Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador—are pending.
Its financing tools now include the Canada Growth Fund, Canada Infrastructure Bank, Export Development Canada, Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program, Canada Strong Fund, and Strategic Response Fund.
But a collection of agencies, funds, targets, and reforms is not an execution plan.
The feds should arrive at the investment summit in Toronto later this month with something more concrete: a national deal book identifying its most consequential projects and giving each one a credible route to a final investment decision.
For every project, the deal book should identify the remaining barriers: regulatory approvals; associated infrastructure, financing, and labour; as well as who will clear them and by when. It should also show whether affected Indigenous nations are engaged early, and have opportunities for ownership, employment, procurement, and revenue sharing.
Consider the federal target of reaching approximately 50 million tonnes of annual LNG exports by 2030. Meeting it would require virtually every major project now in the pipeline to become operational within four years. Canada must identify what each project needs and whether the timeline remains credible.
The same discipline should apply to electricity, nuclear energy, critical minerals, and non-U.S. exports. These projects also depend on enabling infrastructure. Ports, rail corridors, airports, pipelines, transmission lines, trade routes, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage infrastructure may attract less attention than the developments they support, but years of underinvestment can stop viable projects from moving ahead.
Investors should not have to navigate a maze of public institutions. Canada needs a single window that brings projects, Indigenous partners, regulatory bodies, public financing, and private capital together, and manages a potential investment from the first conversation through to the final investment decision.
Success should be measured by results. How many projects reach a final investment decision? How much private capital is unlocked? Are Indigenous partners sharing meaningfully in the opportunities? Are the investments advancing Canada’s export, energy, and productivity goals?
The $1-trillion target matters only if the investment builds infrastructure, expands exports, raises productivity, and produces lasting economic growth.
The breakdown in trade talks makes it clear that Canada can no longer rely on old assumptions. Global investors are coming to Toronto. Canada must be ready to show them (and Canadians) the projects, partnerships, and an execution plan that can turn interest into investment. If we are able to do so, the prize is enormous.
Jay Khosla is executive vice-president of strategy and policy at the Public Policy Forum. Yiota Kokkinos is senior executive advisor for energy at the Public Policy Forum.
The Hill Times